NAVI shock exit and Astralis collapse: why Cologne has become a Major of upsets

Early exits by Natus Vincere and Astralis at the IEM Cologne Major 2026 have pushed the tournament into an unexpected direction, with several top-seeded teams falling before the playoff stage. The results have reshaped the bracket and opened space for lower-ranked squads to advance deeper than expected.

Both teams were viewed as stable contenders heading into the event, but their combined early elimination has reinforced a pattern seen across the Swiss stages in Cologne. Established lineups have struggled to convert map control into consistent series wins, leading to repeated reversals against underdog opposition.

Natus Vincere’s campaign ended in the Swiss stage after a run marked by uneven series results and missed closing opportunities in key matches. The team entered Cologne with direct playoff expectations based on recent tier-one performances but failed to secure the wins needed to progress.

Across their matches, NAVI lost control in late-round situations where advantages were previously converted more reliably. Opponents punished execution gaps, particularly in multi-site retakes and post-plant setups, which shifted momentum across the stage.

The elimination removes one of the most established names from contention and adds to a wider trend of seeded teams failing to stabilize across the Swiss format at this Major.

Astralis’ exit followed a similar trajectory, with the team finishing the Swiss stage on a 1-3 record. Losses across the stage left little margin for recovery, and the final defeat confirmed another early departure.

The result extends Astralis’ absence from Major playoffs, a run that has now continued across multiple tournament cycles since their last deep Major appearance. Their performance in Cologne again showed isolated rounds of control but lacked consistency across full series.

Repeated mid-round breakdowns and unstable late-round execution defined their campaign, continuing a pattern seen throughout the 2026 season at tier-one events.

The combined exits of NAVI and Astralis sit alongside other early departures from seeded teams, creating a playoff field with fewer traditional favourites. Several lower-ranked rosters have converted Swiss-stage opportunities into qualification runs, shifting expectations around the later stages of the event.

Match outcomes across the stage have shown tighter series margins, with overtime maps and comeback wins appearing more frequently than in previous Majors. The format has placed pressure on early consistency rather than long tournament form.

With multiple established organisations eliminated before the playoff cut, attention now turns to teams that have maintained stability through the Swiss rounds. The absence of several expected contenders changes the competitive balance heading into the LANXESS Arena stage.

The remaining bracket now features a wider mix of organisations, many of which have not previously reached deep Major playoff runs. This creates a playoff environment defined less by reputation and more by current form heading into elimination matches.